by Eldric Vero

January 28, 2024

This CotD was inspired by the following articles:

1)      The Peninsula “New Covid sub-mutant found in Qatar; MoPH monitoring status” (see link: https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/31/08/2023/moph-monitoring-status-of-new-covid-19-sub-mutant-limited-cases-registered ).   From the article: Earlier this month, the World Health Organization had announced the new sub-mutant of Covid-19 called EG.5, and so far, it has been reported in more than 50 countries, including the Gulf region. This variant is important because it contains multiple genetic variations that differ from the previous virus. Despite so, no evidence was shown in those countries of an increase in its spread or the need for hospitalization when infected with it, but at the same time more data is being collected about it.

2)      The Peninsula “Qatar top health officials look back on successful COVID-19 response” (see link: https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/18/05/2023/qatar-top-health-officials-look-back-on-successful-covid-19-response ).   From the article: Recently, the Minister of Public Health HE Dr Hanan Mohammed Al Kuwari  highlighted Qatar’s successful national response to the COVID-19 pandemic “Qatar has one of the lowest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world, thanks to highly effective medical care provided to patients with COVID-19 and to one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. The success of Qatar’s COVID-19 response was due to many factors, including the whole of the government approach and the science-led approach.” He said COVID-19 is now endemic, which means it will have a constant presence in Qatar and around the world for the foreseeable future.  “It, therefore, remains important, especially for people 60 and over and those with chronic medical conditions to receive the updated bivalent COVID-19 booster and to seek any treatment if they get infected with COVID,” added Dr Al Khal.

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.  Qatar’s Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was unusually high upon announcement of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020.   The CRD rate slowed somewhat heading into the winter months of 2020/21, however, then took-off in Q2’2021.  The vaccination program started in Q1’2021 with high injection uptake rates to Q3’2021.   The vaccine appeared to be effective as the CRD rate “flattened” somewhat in mid-2021 and again in mid-2022.  There appears to be a vaccine-to-deaths correlation in Q2’2021 and a booster-to-deaths correlation in Q1’2022.  Since Q1’2023, the CRD rate has lessened significantly (near zero) in concert with extremely low vaccine injection rates.

 

Panel 2   Observe the heterogeneous semi-cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized pre-pandemic curve for Monthly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 0 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall pre-pandemic trend.

 

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to October 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

 

Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 1,439 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 1,117 (78 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 1,374 Excess Deaths since January 2021 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~QAT website.  Note the blue-dashed line is a linear best-fit to the data trend.  In essence, this reveals that the Excess Death Rate (EDR) is constant with time.  Once again, the question is “why is this occurring?

 

“Be a free thinker and don’t accept everything you hear as truth.  Be critical and evaluate what you believe in.” Aristotle

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