PS: I’m taking some time out…
by Bruce O’Hara
January 23, 2024
Impatience is one of my besetting sins. I can often see where things are headed and become obsessively impatient waiting for those things to happen. Which does not serve either my mental equilibrium, or my general wellbeing.
For that reason, I have decided to let the world unfold as it does for the next six weeks or so, and tend to my own garden. Ditto for this blog. Maybe after that hiatus, I’ll return. Maybe not.
I didn’t want to simply disappear from your in-box without saying: “Hasta la vista” which translates as “Until next time” rather than “Good-bye.”
I also didn’t want to leave you empty-handed. So here are my top ten predictions for 2024.
- The war in Ukraine will end badly for Ukraine and the United States.
A. Best case scenario: The Ukrainian people see the writing on the wall. We’ll see either a political coup or a semi-voluntary military collapse soon. Maybe Ukraine will manage to keep Odessa and Kharkiv that way.
B. Likely outcome: Ukraine will fight on till the bitter end, losing both Odessa and Kharkiv. The rump Ukraine that remains will be broke, depopulated and demoralized.
C. Worst case: Ukraine will find some way to manipulate NATO into entering the war. Not likely, but not impossible. If World War 3 happens, be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye.
- The war in Gaza will end badly for Israel, and for the United States
A. Best case scenario: The Israeli people realize that the horrifying public spectacle of Gaza is creating new Hamas and Hezbollah recruits much faster than the IDF is able to kill current Hamas fighters. Benjamin Netanyahu is turfed from power, and sent to jail on corruption charges. A ceasefire is declared. Israel slowly rebuilds bridges to the Arab world, and slowly digs its economy out of a deep hole.
B. Likely outcome: Hezbollah will provoke Israel into entering Lebanon before Israel can provoke Hezbollah into invading Israel. The Israeli army will fare badly in this guerrilla war. Israel suffers major casualties and serious damage due to massive Hezbollah rocket fire. Its economy takes years to recover.
C. Worst case: Israel and/or America attack Iran. The carnage in both Iran and Israel is immense. The US loses one or more aircraft carriers. Not likely, but not impossible. If World War 3 happens, be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye.
- Taiwan will continue to hang fire.
A. Likely scenario: China will continue to play a waiting game, hoping that American defeats in Afghanistan, Ukraine and Israel will eventually cause the Taiwanese people to see China as a more trustworthy protector/supporter than America.
B. Worst Case Scenario: China stupidly invades Taiwan as a way to distract from China’s economic problems, drawing the US into the war. Not likely, but not impossible. If World War 3 happens, be prepared to kiss your ass goodbye.
- BRICS will get bigger and stronger.
The war in Gaza is driving Africa, the Muslim world, and the Arab world into the arms of Russia and China. I suspect Iraq will demand that the American military leaves pronto, and then join BRICS. There’s some possibility Turkey will leave NATO for BRICS, although Ergodan for decades has made a science of getting Russia and America to outbid each other in their attempts to garner Turkish support.
That said, BRICS will be ineffective as an international power bloc so long as India and Saudi Arabia remain on the fence between America and Russia/China. If those two countries decide the BRICS is truly where their future lies, we will we see concerted efforts to develop a BRICS alternative to the US dollar.
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