by Eldric Vero

eldric.substack.com

January 14, 2024

This CotD was inspired by two recent articles:

1)      RTE News “Ireland had no excess deaths during pandemic – OECD report” (see link: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2024/0102/1424384-ireland-covid/ ).   From the article: “Professor of Experimental Immunology, School of Biochemistry and Immunology, Trinity College Dublin, Kingston Mills said that the research shows that “Ireland got it about right”.  He said that high vaccine uptake really helped to reduce the death rate and had a significant impact. He said that the success was down to the Department of Health and the Government but also the public who bought into it. “The Irish public should be congratulated on doing a very good job in minimising the very terrible effects of this virus.”

2)      Irish Mirror “Covid Ireland: Strange night-time symptom to look out for that could mean you have the latest strain” (see link: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/covid-ireland-strange-nighttime-symptom-31820657?utm_source=mynewsassistant.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=embedded_search_item_desktop  ).   From the article: “A new strain of Covid, which has quickly become the dominant form of the virus worldwide, has produced a night time symptom that some people are reporting experiencing.  It comes as it was revealed that as well as the usual symptoms previously reported by people with Covid, such as runny noses, coughs, headaches and weakness, some have said they have experienced trouble sleeping, according to the latest data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics.

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.  Ireland’s Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was at a very high level immediately upon announcement of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020 and then “flattened” during the summer months (pre-vaccination).   Heading into the winter months of 2020, the CRD rate once again took-off as would be expected for a corona virus in the northern latitudes. The vaccination program started in January 2021 with high injection uptake rates to year-end 2021.   The vaccine appeared to be effective as the CRD rate “flattened” in mid-2021 after about 30 percent of the population had been injected.   The booster program started in Q4’2021 with continued high injection rates into Q1’2022, however, the CRD rate continued to rise into mid-2022.    Since Q3’2022, the CRD rate has lessened somewhat in concert with extremely low vaccine injection rates.  This type of vaccine-to-deaths correlation profile is relatively common as presented in recent CotDs.  As per Ireland’s Health Service Executive (HSE) “All vaccines are tested to make sure they are safe and work before they can be used. The HSE only uses a vaccine if it meets the required standards of safety and effectiveness.”

 

Panel 2   Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 2.5 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.

 

Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to November 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.

 

Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 12,244 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 10,430 (85.2 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 10,170 Excess Deaths since January 2021 as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~IRL website.  Note the blue-dotted curve is a polynomial (non-linear) best-fit to the data trend.  In essence, this reveals that the Excess Death Rate (EDR) is accelerating, which is a strong signal something is abnormal within Ireland’s population.  Again, the question is “why is this occurring?

 

“Your mind is a battlefield, be its commander, not its soldier” Unknown author

 

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