by Eldric Vero

January 9, 2024

This CotD was inspired by two recent articles:

1) News “Virologist: Covid needs to end in our heads” (see link:  ).   From the article: “One reason was Covid-19 as a serious disease, while a broader crisis in society and the healthcare system and the negative effect of measures taken cannot be ruled out either.  Talking about lessons learned, Lutsar said that while a lockdown helps contain the spread of viruses, it is not a sustainable measure…The role of protective masks is still controversial…masks are a good short-term voluntary measure, while we cannot rely on them to make viral diseases disappear.”

2) News “Estonian court: Defense Forces vaccination requirement legally groundless” (see link:  ).   From the article: “For a healthy person who hasn’t contracted the illness, the obligation to provide a vaccination certificate essentially amounts to compulsory vaccination, as vaccination is a prerequisite for a continued service relationship. As acquiring this certificate effectively necessitated individuals who haven’t had COVID to get vaccinated against it, the court found that the order in question was essentially aimed at forcing people to get vaccinated.”

The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.

Panel 1   The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations.  Estonia’s Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was at a very low level from March 2020 to December 2020.  The vaccination program started in January 2021 with high injection uptake rates to year-end 2021.   The vaccine appeared to be effective as the CRD rate “flattened” in mid-2021 after about 50 percent of the population had been injected.   The booster program started to ramp-up in Q3’2021 with continued high injection rates into Q1’2022, however, the CRD rate continued to rise into mid-2022.     Since Q1’2023, the CRD rate has waned significantly in concert with low vaccine injection rates. This type of vaccine-to-deaths correlation profile is relatively common as presented in previous CotDs.  The Republic of Estonia Health Board under Vaccination Safety indicates the following “Vaccines are biological medicines. However, the use of medicines is never 100% safe. Therefore, it is always necessary to consider the benefit and risk ratio.”


Panel 2   Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015.  The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020.  The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages.  The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths.  The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 2.5 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.


Panel 3   This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to December 2023) of the graph in Panel 2.   The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.


Panel 4   Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 4,737 Excess Deaths since the start of the pandemic of which 4,154 Excess Deaths (87.7 percent) have occurred since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 4,537 Excess Deaths since January 2021 as per the website.


“Though free to think and act, we are held together, like the stars in the firmament, with ties inseparable. These ties cannot be seen, but we can feel them.” Nikola Tesla

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