by Eldric Vero
December 27m 2023
This CotD was inspired by the following:
1) Duetsche Welle (DW) “COVID-19 makes wintertime comeback in Germany ” (see link: https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-makes-wintertime-comeback-in-germany/a-67753001 ). From the article: Germans are sniffling and coughing once again. While the risk (COVID) to the general population is low, Stürmer called on at-risk groups, including people over the age of 60, to get booster shots. These add a layer of defense against so-called long COVID, the long-term effects of COVID-19. Masks could be sensible, too, he added, although there is little public desire to go back to them. “The willingness to be vaccinated is also certainly at a low level,” said Stürmer. “I think these are all factors that we could significantly improve with positive and meaningful communication”.
2) Zusammen gegen Corona “COVID-19 Vaccines are Safe” as of June 16, 2022 (see link: https://web.archive.org/web/20221126231058/www.zusammengegencorona.de/en/covid-19-vaccines-are-safe/ ). From the website: “Strict safety standards in the EU. All vaccines must be harmless, safe, effective and thoroughly tested before they receive market authorisation in the EU or in Germany. Prof. Kremsner from Tubingen University Hospital on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines “so far, we’ve seen nothing to give cause for concern and we’ve been monitoring the first vaccinations for the past six months. Things are looking good. Approvals have not been rushed…I think we can rely on that process”.
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. Germany’s vaccination program was initiated in January 2021 with little effect on the Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate. The CRD rate subsided to a relatively low rate approaching the summer of 2021, indicating the vaccine program may have been effective with 60 percent of the population fully vaccinated by July 2021. The CRD rate has climbed continuously since November 2021 in concert with the accelerated booster vaccine rate of uptake. The booster to CRD correlation is evident starting in Q1 2022 as both curves mirror each other. The CRD rate peaked at 3093 (442 per day) of German citizens dying during the fourth week in November 2021, which was shocking and heartbreaking to say the least. Note there have been no official CRDs since June 2023 (six months) which coincides with essentially the end of vaccines.
Panel 2 Observe the characteristic cyclical nature of deaths or all-cause mortality since 2015. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Weekly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 1.25 percent growth factor which appears to be a good match to the overall trend.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to September 2023) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 309,884 Excess Deaths since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares to 221,275 Excess Deaths over the same time frame as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~DEU website. It should be noted that 82 percent of Excess Deaths have occurred since initiation of the vaccine injection program.
“The man who thinks before he acts, is most likely to act with discretion, and have no future cause to repent of his conduct; but he who acts blindly, without any foresight, will probably suffer for his rashness.” German Proverb
