by Eldric Vero
December 12, 2023
This CotD was inspired by two recent articles:
1) The Independent Singapore “Ministry of Health refutes claims that mRNA vaccines cause coronavirus mutations” (see link: https://theindependent.sg/ministry-of-health-refutes-claims-that-mrna-vaccines-cause-coronavirus-mutations/ ). From the article: “The MOH stressed the extensive scientific evidence supporting the efficacy of vaccination in reducing the risk of severe illness and death among those infected with COVID-19. The Ministry acknowledged that vaccination does not provide 100% protection, particularly for older and vulnerable individuals, but emphasized that deaths should be attributed to the virus rather than the vaccines. It also urged the public to base their conclusions on scientific evidence as it reiterated the importance of vaccination in the ongoing battle against the COVID-19 pandemic.”
2) Channel News Asia “Singapore updates COVID-19 vaccine advisory, recommends new dose about a year after last shot” (see link: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-updated-vaccine-singapore-new-dose-pfizer-moderna-3879716) . From the article: “The ministry added that as of Sept 30, reporting rates of adverse reactions and serious adverse reactions for the mRNA vaccines (monovalent and bivalent versions) remained rare at 0.10 per cent and 0.007 per cent respectively. “Vaccination remains our primary defence against COVID-19, and continues to be safe and effective,” MOH said. Protection from vaccination will wane over time. We therefore encourage all individuals to keep up to date with their vaccination once eligible.”
The author of the CotD has combined analyses of Covid-19 and Excess Deaths (all causes) as these are related.
Panel 1 The first graph is a construct by the author as a standard CotD presentation which illustrates Covid-19 related deaths (CRDs) and vaccinations. Singapore’s Covid-19 Related Death (CRD) rate was very low from March 2020 (beginning of the pandemic) to August 2021. The vaccination program started in January 2021 with little to no impact on the already flattened CRD rate. The booster program was initiated in September 2021 with injection up-take rates at warp speed into Q1’2022. The immediate rise in CRDs once the booster program was initiated is clearly evident. The vaccine-to-deaths correlation is essentially 100 percent with a near perfect mirror image of vaccines and deaths in Q4’2021. The CRD rate peaked at near 100 Singapore citizens dying in one week in October 2021, which was appalling and absolutely tragic to say the least. The author could not find an official statement by the Singapore Ministry of Health (except in the news article above) indicating “the vaccines are safe and effective”.
Panel 2 Recent CotD presentations depict a defined annual cycle to deaths or all-cause mortality, however, this appears to be not the case in Singapore. The “Blue” line represents data prior to March 2020 and the “Red” line represents data since the SARS CoV-2 pandemic was initiated in March 2020. The “Green” line represents the “Expected” deaths (CotD Model) based on historical averages. The author has utilized the data for the five year period January 2015 to December 2019 in order to calculate an average normalized curve for Monthly Deaths. The Expected (CotD Model) deaths incorporates an average 9 percent growth factor which sounds very aggressive, however, this approach appears to be a good match to the overall trend.
Panel 3 This presents the magnified portion (January 2020 to September 2023) of the graph in Panel 2. The “Orange” line represents “Excess Deaths” which is calculated by subtracting Expected Deaths from Official Deaths.
Panel 4 Based on the data and this author’s model, there have been 8,419 Excess Deaths since the start of Covid-19 injections in January 2021. This compares favorably to 8,397 excess deaths over the same time frame as per the https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-covid?country=~SGP website. Note that essentially 100 percent of Excess Deaths have occurred since initiation of the vaccine injection program.
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