by Bruce O’Hara
September 21, 2022
Here is the Executive Summary of a fascinating Research Report the Rand Corporation submitted to the US Government last January, not long before the war in Ukraine started. The subtitle – “Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S.” – lays out the key concept.
The Executive Summary is only eight pages – I strongly suggest you read the original. (Perhaps save a copy to your hard drive before the big-tech cyber-police remove it.)
Here’s the gist of it, for those of you who are short of time:
• America is in a political and economic crisis which could result in the Democratic Party losing power in November.
• “There is an urgent need for resources to flow into the national economy.” Only European countries will be able to provide them without significant military and political costs for the United States.
• “The major obstacle to it is growing independence of Germany.” – an economic independence made worse by Brexit.
• Europe could become “not only an economic, but also a political competitor to the U.S.”
• “An increase in the flow of resources from Europe to U.S can be expected if Germany begins to experience a controlled economic crisis.
• The main pillar on which the German economy rests is cheap oil and gas from Russia.
• Due to American efforts it has been possible to block the opening of the NordStream 2 pipeline. This increases German vulnerability.
• “The only feasible way to guarantee Germany’s rejection of Russian energy supplies is to involve both sides in the military conflict in Ukraine.”
• “The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the leading role of green parties and ideology in Europe.” “It will be enough to form the media image of Putin’s aggressive war to turn Greens into ardent and hardline supporters of sanctions”.
• “This will insure a sufficiently long gap in cooperation between Germany and Russia, which will make large German economic operators uncompetitive.”
• “A reduction in Russian energy supplies … would lead to disastrous outcomes for Germany.”
• All of Europe will suffer a major recession, and the Euro will fall below the dollar.
• The U.S. could expect an inflow of well-educated young immigrants from Europe.
• War in Ukraine would strengthen monetary inflows to the U.S., as well as distracting US voters from American problems, “which, in turn. will reduce electoral risks.”
• “In the medium term (4-5 years), the cumulative benefits of capital flight, re-oriented logistical flows and reduced competition in major industries may amount to USD 7-9 trillion.”
In other words, Rand is arguing that goading Russia into invading Ukraine would enable America to kill three birds with one stone: 1) Weaken Russia, 2) Return Germany to the status of a dependent client state of the US, and 3) Enrich America to the tune of several trillion dollars by destroying Europe as an economic competitor.
The Rand Corp is not the US Government. It is, however, a hugely influential American think-tank. I think it is fair to assume that all the ideas in this Executive Summary would have been discussed at the highest levels of the US Government.
Certainly the Rand Corp is in such regular contact with the White House and the State Department that Rand will have an inside track to knowing which ideas will be looked on favorably by the US Government, and which ideas would be unacceptable. The fact that Rand submitted this document to the US Government strongly suggests that Rand thought the State Department would approve of these ideas.
We know that the US Government went out of its way to provoke Russia to invade Ukraine, allowing Ukraine to talk openly about seeking NATO membership, and encouraging Ukraine to attack the Donbass in direct contravention of the Minsk Accords.
America has actively encouraged Europe to cut itself off completely and permanently from Russian oil and gas. (Europe’s sanctions on Russian energy are much more draconian than America’s sanctions on Russian energy, which is also telling.)
Clearly America was threatened by Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. The last thing in world America wanted was any detente or friendship between Europe and Russia. (They have now very successfully removed that risk for the foreseeable future!)
It’s also true that often the best way to understand another’s actions is to look at the results of those actions. Germany, indeed all of Europe, has been gravely weakened by European sanctions on Russian oil and gas. There’s little risk of Germany getting uppity now, and almost no chance of it acting like a strong, independent country.
America now also has much less to fear of Germany and/or Europe outcompeting America in world markets.
It is horrifying to think that the US State Department was so invested in weakening both Russia and Germany that it actively goaded Russia into invading Ukraine.
Six months later, 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded. Several million Ukrainians have fled the country; several million more have been internally displaced. Ukraine is bankrupt; its economy in ruins. Europe is at the edge of a major recession/depression. World War Three remains a distinct possibility.
Yet the US State Department remains quite willing to fight to the last Ukrainian – and the last European, for that matter. Who but sociopaths could be so devoid of human feeling?
I understand that a large and growing chunk of the population of Europe feels that the sanctions against Russian oil and gas have hurt Europe much more than they have hurt Russia. They are feeling like ‘collateral damage’ in America’s war on Ukraine, and many are unhappy about it.
If you are a European who finds themselves cold, hungry and in the dark sometime before next Spring, you will need to understand that the truth is ever-so-much darker that that.
You’re not collateral damage. You’re a secondary target in America’s efforts to remain the world’s one and only superpower.
PS: That wonderful Russian-American blogger The Saker deserves the credit for finding this Rand-gem. Here’s his original article.
